Gabriel
Chodorow-Reich, Loukas Karabarbounis, NBER: The Limited Macroeconomic Effects
of Unemployment Benefit Extensions. By how much does an extension of unemployment benefits affect macroeconomic
outcomes such as unemployment? Answering this question is challenging because
U.S. law extends benefits for states experiencing high unemployment. We use data revisions to decompose the
variation in the duration of benefits into the part coming from actual
differences in economic conditions and the part coming from measurement error
in the real-time data used to determine benefit extensions. Using only the variation coming from
measurement error, we find that benefit extensions have a limited influence on state-level
macroeconomic outcomes. We use our
estimates to quantify the effects of the increase in the duration of benefits
during the Great Recession and find that they increased the unemployment rate
by at most 0.3 percentage point.
Steven D. Levitt,
John A. List, Sally Sadoff, NBER: The Effect of Performance-Based Incentives on
Educational Achievement: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment. We test the effect of performance-based incentives on
educational achievement in a low-performing school district using a randomized field
experiment. High school freshmen were
provided monthly financial incentives for meeting an achievement standard based
on multiple measures of performance including attendance, behavior, grades and
standardized test scores. Within the
design, we compare the effectiveness of varying the recipient of the reward
(students or parents) and the incentive structure (fixed rate or lottery). While the overall effects of the incentives
are modest, the program has a large and significant impact among students on
the threshold of meeting the achievement standard. These students continue to outperform their
control group peers a year after the financial incentives end. However, the program effects fade in longer
term follow up, highlighting the importance of longer term tracking of incentive
programs.
Richard Blundell,
Michael Grabera, Magne Mogstad, JPE: Labor income dynamics and the insurance
from taxes, transfers, and the family. What do labor income dynamics look like over the life-cycle? We use
rich Norwegian population panel data to answer these important questions. We
find that the income processes differ systematically by age, skill level and
their interaction. To accurately describe labor income dynamics over the
life-cycle, it is necessary to allow for heterogeneity by education levels and
account for non-stationarity in age and time. Our findings suggest that the
redistributive nature of the Norwegian tax–transfer system plays a key role in
attenuating the magnitude and persistence of income shocks, especially among
the low skilled. By comparison, spouse's income matters less for the dynamics
of inequality over the life-cycle.
Julia Tanndal,
Daniel Waldenström, VOX: Big Bang financial deregulation and income inequality:
Evidence from UK and Japan. Financial
deregulation in the US has been shown to be associated with rising income inequality
over the past four decades. This column looks at the income effects of
financial deregulation in the UK and Japan during the 1980s and 1990s. As in
the US, deregulation substantially increased the shares of income going to the
very top of the distribution. These findings highlight the importance of
financial markets in the evolution of income inequality in society.
Jeffrey Sparshott,
WSJ: Do Cheaters Ever Prosper? A Lesson
From N.Y. Student Tests. A 2011 analysis
for The Wall Street Journal showed a bulge in New York City students’ test
scores right over the passing mark. The evidence strongly suggested teachers
were manipulating grades on statewide Regents Exams and helped spur changes to
testing procedures. Thomas Dee, a professor at Stanford University, updated the
numbers from his initial analysis after the state took steps to eliminate grade
inflation. The findings: Teachers who manipulated scores appear to have been
motivated by altruism, score manipulation was eliminated by 2012, and the
graduation gap between black and white students is about 5% larger in its
absence.
David Downs,
Scientific American: The Science behind the DEA's Long War on Marijuana. Experts say listing cannabis among the world’s
deadliest drugs ignores decades of scientific and medical data. But attempts to
delist it have met with decades of bureaucratic inertia and political
distortion. Speculation is growing about the possibility that the U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration (DEA) will review by summer its “Schedule I”
designation of marijuana as equal to heroin among the world’s most dangerous
drugs.
Crystal
Smith-Spangler et al., Annals of Internal Medicine: Are Organic Foods Safer or
Healthier Than Conventional Alternatives? A Systematic Review. 17 studies in humans and 223 studies of nutrient and
contaminant levels in foods met inclusion criteria 1966-2011. Only 3 of the
human studies examined clinical outcomes, finding no significant differences
between populations by food type for allergic outcomes (eczema, wheeze, atopic
sensitization) or symptomatic Campylobacter infection. The published literature
lacks strong evidence that organic foods are significantly more nutritious than
conventional foods. Consumption of organic foods may reduce exposure to
pesticide residues and antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
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