Ross Levine, Yona
Rubinstein, The Quarterly Journal of Economics: Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes
an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More? We disaggregate the self-employed into incorporated and unincorporated
to distinguish between “entrepreneurs” and other business owners. We show that
the incorporated self-employed and their businesses engage in activities that
demand comparatively strong nonroutine cognitive abilities, while the
unincorporated and their firms perform tasks demanding relatively strong manual
skills. People who become incorporated business owners tend to be more educated
and—as teenagers—score higher on learning aptitude tests, exhibit greater
self-esteem, and engage in more illicit activities than others. The combination of “smart” and
“illicit” tendencies as youths accounts for both entry into entrepreneurship
and the comparative earnings of entrepreneurs. Individuals tend to experience a
material increase in earnings when becoming entrepreneurs, and this increase
occurs at each decile of the distribution.
Giuseppe Forte,
Jonathan Portes, IZA: Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to
the UK. This paper examines the
determinants of long-term international migration to the UK; we explore the
extent to which migration is driven by macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita,
unemployment rate) as well as law and policy (the existence of "free
movement" rights for EEA nationals). We find a very large impact from free movement within the
EEA. We also find that macroeconomic variables – UK GDP growth and GDP at
origin – are significant drivers of migration flows; evidence for the impact of
the unemployment rate in countries of origin, or of the exchange rate, however,
is weak. We conclude that, while future migration flows will be driven
by a number of factors, macroeconomic and otherwise, Brexit and the end of free
movement will result in a large fall in immigration from EEA countries to the
UK.
Michael A.
Clemens, IZA: Violence, Development and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central
American Child Migrant Apprehensions. A recent surge
in child migration to the U.S. from Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala has
occurred in the context of high rates of regional violence. But little
quantitative evidence exists on the causal relationship between violence and
international emigration in this or any other region. This paper studies the
relationship between violence in the Northern Triangle and child migration to
the United States using novel, individual-level, anonymized data on all 178,825
U.S. apprehensions of unaccompanied child migrants from these countries between
2011 and 2016. It finds
that one additional homicide per year in the region, sustained over the whole
period – that is, a cumulative total of six additional homicides – caused a
cumulative total of 3.7 additional unaccompanied child apprehensions in the
United States. The explanatory power of short-term increases in violence is
roughly equal to the explanatory power of long-term economic characteristics
like average income and poverty. Due to diffusion of migration
experience and assistance through social networks, violence can cause waves of
migration that snowball over time, continuing to rise even when violence levels
do not.
David G.
Blanchflower, Andrew J. Oswald, IZA: Do Humans Suffer a Psychological Low in
Midlife? Two Approaches (With and Without Controls) in Seven Data Sets. Using seven recent data sets, covering 51 countries
and 1.3 million randomly sampled people, the paper examines the pattern of
psychological well-being from approximately age 20 to age 90. Two conceptual
approaches to this issue are possible. Despite what has been argued in the
literature, neither is the 'correct' one, because they measure different
things. One studies raw numbers on well-being and age. This is the descriptive
approach. The second studies the patterns in regression equations for
well-being (that is, adjusting for other influences). This is the
ceteris-paribus analytical approach. The paper applies each to large
cross-sections and compares the patterns of life-satisfaction and happiness. Using the first method, there is
evidence of a midlife low in five of the seven data sets. Using the second
method, all seven data sets produce evidence consistent with a midlife low. The
scientific explanation for the approximate U-shape currently remains unknown.
Denis Paiste, MIT
News: Using evolutionary dynamics and game theory to understand personal
relations. MIT biophysicists apply
mathematics from evolutionary biology to describe a surprising aspect of human
behavior. This model is a
solid contribution to our understanding of principles of behavior, cooperation,
and morality, and more generally fits within a wider literature that is
important and insightful which uses game theoretic models and models of
learning and evolutionary processes to understand puzzling aspects of human
social behavior,” Hoffman says. “How else can we understand our social
species if we don't try and uncover the hidden function behind what they do
think and believe? And what better tools to do that than models of game theory,
learning and evolutionary processes.
Elizabeth Linos,
Joanne Reinhard, Simon Ruda and Michael Sanders, Behavioural Insights Team:
Measuring the impact of body worn video cameras on police behaviour and
criminal justice outcomes. The results of
this trial indicate that BWVCs
can improve police decision making in several ways: leading to fewer
unnecessary Stop and Searches and improvements in metrics related to prosecutions.
Additionally, we find wellbeing-related benefits to wearing a BWVCs, such as
reduced sickness absenteeism rates and self-reported feelings of safety when
conducting a Stop and Search. The findings also flag the need for
further research on the impact of BWVCs: for example, the increase in
allegations against officers could be explored further by analysing metrics
that could not be collected as part of this trial (such as the reason for the
complaint and levels of use of force by the officer).
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