Thursday, October 27, 2016

OCTOBER 27 2016

John Fernald, FED San Francisco: What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth? Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1½ and 1¾%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, reducing its contribution to productivity growth through labor quality. The GDP growth forecast assumes that, apart from these effects, the modest productivity growth is relatively “normal”—in line with its pace for most of the period since 1973.

Adam Chandler, The Atlantic: Why Do Americans Move So Much More Than Europeans? Decades of data, including a more recent Gallup study, characterizes the United States as one of the most geographically mobile countries in the world. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the average person in the United States moves residences more than 11 times in his or her lifetime. According to a survey conducted by the real-estate company Re/Max earlier this year, that figure across 16 European countries is roughly four. More than half of interstate migrants said they moved for employment-related reasons. Workers in the U.S. now “put in almost 25 percent more hours than Europeans” in a given year. Fatih Karahan and Darius Li at the New York Fed are the latest to note that U.S. workers are moving around less than before. Karahan and Li put much stock in the effects of an aging workforce, to which they attribute “at least half” of the decline in interstate migration.

Caroline M. Hoxby, NBER: The Dramatic Economics  of the U.S. Market  for Higher Education. I show the productivity of institutions across this market. Strikingly, among institutions that experience strong market forces, the productivity of a dollar of educational resources is fairly similar, even if the schools serve students with substantially different CR. On the other hand, among institutions that experience weak market forces, productivity is lower and more dispersed. These facts suggest that market forces are needed to keep schools productive and to allocate resources across schools in a way that assures that the marginal return to additional resources at different institutions is roughly comparable.

Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind, Harvard Business Review: Robots Will Replace Doctors, Lawyers, and Other Professionals. Most mainstream professionals — doctors, lawyers, accountants, and so on — believe they will emerge largely unscathed. During our consulting work and at conferences, we regularly hear practitioners concede that routine work can be taken on by machines, but they maintain that human experts will always be needed for the tricky stuff that calls for judgment, creativity, and empathy. Our research and analysis challenges the idea that these professionals will be spared. We expect that within decades the traditional professions will be dismantled, leaving most, but not all, professionals to be replaced by less-expert people, new types of experts, and high-performing systems.

Hansen, Bertel Teilfeldt et al, Epidemiology: The consequences of daylight savings time transitions on the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. Daylight savings time (DST) transitions affect approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide. Prior studies have documented associations between DST transitions and adverse health outcomes. Using time series intervention analysis of nationwide data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012 we compared the observed trend in the incidence rate of hospital contacts for unipolar depressive episodes after the transitions to and from summer time to the predicted trend in the incidence rate. The analyses were based on 185.419 hospital contacts for unipolar depression and showed that the transition from summer time to standard time led to an 11 percent increase (95% CI: 7, 15%) in the incidence rate of hospital contacts for unipolar depressive episodes that dissipated over approximately 10 weeks.

Austin C. Smith, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics: Spring Forward at Your Own Risk: Daylight Saving Time and Fatal Vehicle Crashes. Daylight Saving Time (DST) impacts over 1.5 billion people, yet many of its impacts on practicing populations remain uncertain. Exploiting the discrete nature of DST transitions and a 2007 policy change, I estimate the impact of DST on fatal automobile crashes. My results imply that from 2002–2011 the transition into DST caused over 30 deaths at a social cost of $275 million annually. Employing four tests to decompose the aggregate effect into an ambient light or sleep mechanism, I find that shifting ambient light only reallocates fatalities within a day, while sleep deprivation caused by the spring transition increases risk.

Havranek, Tomas, Herman, Dominik, Irsova, Zuzana, MPRA: Does Daylight Saving Save Energy? A Meta-Analysis. The original rationale for adopting daylight saving time (DST) was energy savings. Modern research studies, however, question the magnitude and even direction of the effect of DST on energy consumption. Representing the first meta-analysis in this literature, we collect 162 estimates from 44 studies and find that the mean reported estimate indicates modest energy savings: 0.34% during the days when DST applies. Energy savings are larger for countries farther away from the equator, while subtropical regions consume more energy because of DST.

Jochen Bittner, NYT: What Do Trump and Marx Have in Common? We have a word in German, “Wutbürger,” which means “angry citizen”. Wutbürgers lie at both ends of the political spectrum. A Wutbürger rages against a new train station and tilts against wind turbines. Many British Wutbürgers voted for Brexit. French Wutbürgers will vote for Marine Le Pen’s National Front. Perhaps the most powerful Wutbürger of them all is Donald J. Trump. Which raises the question: How was anger hijacked? Karl Marx was a Wutbürger. The upper class has gained much more from the internationalization of trade and finances than the working class has, often in obscene ways. We live in a world, the liberal British historian Timothy Garton Ash noted lately, “which would have Marx rubbing his hands with Schadenfreude.” In Germany a recent poll showed that only 14 percent of the citizens trusted the politicians.

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