NOVEMBER 5 2010

Ben S. Bernanke, Washington Post: What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability. Today, most measures of underlying inflation are running somewhat below 2 percent, or a bit lower than the rate most Fed policymakers see as being most consistent with healthy economic growth in the long run. Although low inflation is generally good, inflation that is too low can pose risks to the economy - especially when the economy is struggling. In the most extreme case, very low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), which can contribute to long periods of economic stagnation. Even absent such risks, low and falling inflation indicate that the economy has considerable spare capacity, implying that there is scope for monetary policy to support further gains in employment without risking economic overheating. The FOMC decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed. With short-term interest rates already about as low as they can go, the FOMC agreed to deliver that support by purchasing additional longer-term securities, as it did in 2008 and 2009. The FOMC intends to buy an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by mid-2011 and will continue to reinvest repayments of principal on its holdings of securities, as it has been doing since August.

Fernanda Nechio, San Francisco Fed: The Greek Crisis: Argentina Revisited? Greece’s enormous fiscal deficit and high debt level culminated earlier this year in the euro zone’s first sovereign debt crisis. High yields on Greece’s debt indicate that markets have priced in the possibility of default. Compared with Argentina, which defaulted on its debt in 2001, Greece’s fiscal position is much worse. However, unlike Argentina, Greece is supported by other euro zone countries and is not vulnerable to speculative currency attacks, advantages that offer it some protection from default.

Catherine Rampell, NYT Blog: Will Additional Fed Action Help the Economy? Some Fed officials had previously weighed in on the effectiveness of additional monetary policy action, as had economists from around the world. Here’s a brief run-down of some expert opinions on the issue written up before today’s announcement.

Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate: Beware of Wounded Lions. G-20 leaders who scoff at the United States’ proposal for numerical trade-balance limits should know that they are playing with fire. The US is not making a demand as much as it is issuing a plea for help. According to a recent joint report by the International Monetary Fund and the International Labor Organization, fully 25% of the rise in unemployment since 2007, totaling 30 million people worldwide, has occurred in the US. If this situation persists, as I have long warned it might, it will lay the foundations for huge global trade frictions. The voter anger expressed in the US mid-term elections could prove to be only the tip of the iceberg.

Francesco D'Amuri, Giovanni Peri, VoxEU: Immigration and productive tasks: Can immigrant workers benefit native workers? Several studies find that immigrants do not harm the wages and job prospects of native workers. This column seeks to explain these somewhat counterintuitive findings by emphasizing the scope for complementarities between foreign-born and native workers. Examining 14 European countries from 1996 to 2007, it finds that immigrants often supply manual skills, leaving native workers to take up jobs that require more complex skills – even boosting demand for them. Immigrants replace “tasks”, not workers.

Tyler Cowen, NYT: How Immigrants Create More Jobs. When companies move production offshore, they pull away not only low-wage jobs but also many related jobs, which can include high-skilled managers, tech repairmen and others. But hiring immigrants even for low-wage jobs helps keep many kinds of jobs in the United States. In fact, when immigration is rising as a share of employment in an economic sector, offshoring tends to be falling, and vice versa. In other words, immigrants may be competing more with offshored workers than with other laborers in America.

Sherrilyn M. Billger, Carlos Lamarche, IZA: Immigrant Heterogeneity and the Earnings Distribution in the United Kingdom and United States: New Evidence from a Panel Data Quantile Regression Analysis. We show that country of origin, country of residence, and gender are all important determinants of the earnings differential. For instance, a large wage penalty occurs in the U.S. among female immigrants from non-English speaking countries, and the penalty is most negative among the lowest (conditional) wages. On the other hand, women in Britain experience hardly any immigrant-native wage differential. We find evidence suggesting that immigrant men in the U.S. and the U.K. earn lower wages, but the most significant results are found for British workers emigrating from non-English speaking countries. The various differentials we report in this paper reveal the value of combining quantile regression with controls for individual heterogeneity in better understanding immigrant wage effects.

Dave Donaldson, NBER: Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure. How large are the benefits of transportation infrastructure projects, and what explains these benefits? To shed new light on these questions, this paper uses archival data from colonial India to investigate the impact of India's vast railroad network. Guided by four predictions from a general equilibrium trade model, I find that railroads: (1) decreased trade costs and interregional price gaps; (2) increased interregional and international trade; (3) increased real income levels; and (4), that a sufficient statistic for the effect of railroads on welfare in the model (an effect that is purely due to newly exploited gains from trade) accounts for virtually all of the observed reduced-form impact of railroads on real income in the data. I find no spurious effects from over 40,000 km of lines that were approved but - for four different reasons - were never built.

Rebecca Allen, Simon Burgess, CMPO: Where do star teachers come from? Malcolm Gladwell writes: Who do we hire when we can’t tell who’s right for the job?’. He described the teaching profession as: “There are certain jobs where almost nothing you can learn about candidates before they start predicts how they’ll do once they’re hired.” US economists Kane and Staiger suggest that we need to try out four candidates to find one good teacher. Gladwell suggests that, given cognitive skills are relatively unimportant, we should lower entry standards to “having a pulse and a basic college education”. As he says: “We should be lowering [standards], because there is no point in raising standards if standards don’t track with what we care about.

Decio Coviello, Andrea Ichino, Nicola Persico, NBER: Don't Spread Yourself Too Thin: The Impact of Task Juggling on Workers' Speed of Job Completion. We show that task juggling, i.e., the spreading of effort across too many active projects, decreases the performance of workers, raising the chances of low throughput, long duration of projects and exploding backlogs. Individual speed of job completion cannot be explained only in terms of effort, ability and experience: work scheduling is a crucial “input” that cannot be omitted from the production function of individual workers. We provide a simple theoretical model to study the effects of increased task juggling on the duration of projects. Using a sample of Italian judges we show that those who are induced for exogenous reasons to work in a more parallel fashion on many trials at the same time, take longer to complete similar portfolios of cases. The exogenous variation that identifies this causal effect is constructed exploiting the lottery that assigns cases to judges together with the procedural prescription requiring judges to hold the first hearing of a case no later than 60 days from filing.