Dan Andrews,
Chiara Criscuolo, Peter Gal, VOX: The best vs the rest: The global productivity
slowdown hides an increasing performance gap across firms. Even before the Global Crisis, productivity growth
had slowed in many OECD countries. This column argues that the global slowdown
at the aggregate level masks a deterioration in both productivity growth within
firms and a process of creative destruction. Using a cross-country firm-level database for 24
countries, the authors reveal an increasing productivity gap between the global
frontier and laggard firms, fewer exits by weak firms, and a decline in entry.
These problems have been compounded by the failure of policy to encourage the
diffusion of best practices in OECD countries.
Daron Acemoglu,
Pascual Restrepo, NBER; Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. We analyze the effect of the increase in industrial
robot usage between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets. Using a model in
which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks,
we show that robots may reduce employment and wages, and that the local labor
market effects of robots can be estimated by regressing the change in
employment and wages on the exposure to robots in each local labor
market—defined from the national penetration of robots into each industry and
the local distribution of employment across industries. Using this approach, we
estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages
across commuting zones. According
to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to
population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5
percent.
Branko Milanovic,
globalinequality: The welfare state in the age of globalization. Economic migration to which most of the rich
societies have been newly exposed in the past fifty years (especially so in
Europe) also undercuts the support for the welfare state. This happens through
inclusion of people with actual or perceived differences in social norms or
lifecycle experiences. It is the same
phenomenon as dubbed by Peter Lindert lack of “affinity” between the white
majority and African Americans in the US which rendered the US welfare state
historically smaller than its European counterparts. The same process is now taking place in Europe where large pockets of
immigrants have not been assimilated and where the native population believes
that the migrants are getting an unfair share of the benefits.
Anne Case, Angus
Deaton, Princeton University: Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century. Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have
continued their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the
US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling for those with
low levels of educational attainment, and are doing so more rapidly than
mortality rates for those with higher levels of education. Many commentators have suggested
that the poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to slowly growing, stagnant,
and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it
cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. We propose a preliminary but
plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage over life, in the labor
market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by
progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for
whites with low levels of education.
Sandra E. Black,
Erik Grönqvist, Björn Öckert, IZA: Born to Lead? The Effect of Birth Order on
Non-Cognitive Abilities. We study the
effect of birth order on personality traits among men using population data on
enlistment records and occupations for Sweden. We find that earlier born men are more emotionally
stable, persistent, socially outgoing, willing to assume responsibility, and
able to take initiative than later-borns. In addition, we find that birth order
affects occupational sorting; first-born children are more likely to be
managers, while later-born children are more likely to be self-employed.
We also find that earlier born children are more likely to be in occupations
that require leadership ability, social ability and the Big Five personality
traits. Finally, we find a significant role of sex composition within the
family. Later-born boys suffer an additional penalty the larger the share of
boys among the older siblings. When we investigate possible mechanisms, we find
that the negative effects of birth order are driven by post-natal environmental
factors. We also find evidence of lower parental human capital investments in
later-born children.
Tyler Cowen,
Bloomberg: Once We Listened to the Beatles. Now We Eat Beetles. Restaurants
are increasingly an organizing and revitalizing force in our cities, and eating
out has continued to rise as a means of socializing. America’s educated
professional class may be out of touch with sports and tired of discussing the
weather, and so trading information about new or favorite restaurants, or
recipes and ingredients, has become one of the new all-purpose topics of
conversation. Food is a relatively gender-neutral topic, and furthermore immigrant
newcomers can be immediately proud of what they know and have eaten.
